The USD has received a fresh bout of demand as a second Trump presidency continues to sink in with the market.

The expectations are that Trump will double down on his hardline tariff proposals and suggested expansionary policies. This may lead to higher inflation and therefore prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates more aggressively, which has made the dollar more attractive. Recent comments from Fed officials seem to support this notion and there is now more uncertainty over whether they will follow through with another 0.25% rate cut next month. This afternoon’s US inflation data (CPI – 1.30pm) will therefore be closely watched, as any surprise on the upside could dramatically change the odds on a December cut and consequently lead to further Dollar strength.

The Euro has continued to be on the backfoot since the US election news. Markets are concerned that Trump could target European trade following the threats he made during his campaign (e.g. tariffs of between 10-20% on any imports). Furthermore, news that the governing coalition in Germany has collapsed (with fresh elections in Feb) has added to the Euro’s woes. Talk of parity in the EUR/USD pair has now intensified, with a number of the big banks slashing their forecasts for the main exchange rate in the past few days.

In other news, Sterling performed poorly yesterday following a mixed UK jobs report. The UK unemployment rate jumped to above consensus to 4.3% last month (from 4%), its highest level since May. However, the data showed continued upside pressures in wages. Average earnings growth including bonuses accelerated again, rising to an annual pace of 4.3%, up from 3.9%. The latter should provide the Bank of England with little incentive to adopt anything more than a gradual easing cycle in the coming months, with the market only pricing in two additional 0.25% cuts in the next year.

As a result, the GBP/USD is trading around a 3mth low having lost nearly 2-cents this week. The EUR/USD is down around 3-cents since the US election and had touched the lowest levels since Nov 2023. The GBP/EUR has come off its most recent highs having fallen around 1-cent from Monday and trading around a 1-week low. Next up we the US inflation data out at 1.30pm today and UK growth data (GDP) on Friday morning.

Trump

Trump win continues to support the USD


The USD has rallied against almost every currency overnight as Donald Trump has won the US election with a big overperformance versus the polls.  

Expectations leading into the vote were that this was going to be one of the closest run races in living memory. However, as was the case in both 2016 and 2020, both the opinion surveys and prediction models once again grossly underestimated Republican support, with Trump not only achieving a big victory in the electoral college, but an outright win in the popular vote.

The dollar started to strengthen overnight as early results showed Trump was performing well in the key battleground states. This continued as Trump wins in key swing states started to be projected and later declared (North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia). Indeed, it now looks likely he will take victory in all seven key swing states.

Generally, markets are taking the view that another spell in the White House for Donald Trump is a bullish development for the USD. Some of key beliefs for this are as below:

1) Trump’s preference for lower US tax rates. Proposals for sweeping tax cuts under President Trump are seen as lifting near-term US growth, which may lead to higher inflation and therefore higher US interest rates (which makes the USD more attractive to investors seeking higher yields).

2) Greater protectionism means higher US tariffs, particularly on China and Europe. The implication here is that these tariffs could be a precursor to weaker global growth under Donald Trump. This is a scenario that would see investors potentially favour safe-haven assets, such as the USD.

3) Another Trump term may ensure higher geopolitical uncertainty, which is also not favourable for risk appetite. Support for Ukraine is not guaranteed, nor does Trump hold a particularly favourable view towards NATO.

As a result, the Euro was the worst performer against the USD among the major currencies, as investors brace for potentially onerous European tariffs and a heightened security risk. The EUR/USD has lost around 2-cents overnight and hit a 4-mth low. Sterling has proved to be more resilient against the USD, in part due to its lower exposure to global demand, but the GBP/USD is still down around 1.3% from the high it reached overnight and now trades at a 6-day low. The GBP/EUR is up 0.5% today and trading at a 1-week high.

So far, the moves in the FX market have been relatively contained versus many expectations. However, it’s very early days and we would expect volatility to remain elevated over the coming trading sessions, as investors position themselves in anticipation of another Trump presidency. This could potentially mean fresh downside in risk assets and another bout of USD strength, particularly should the Federal Reserve hint to markets at upcoming policy meetings (possibly even at tomorrow’s) that the outcome of the election may slow the pace of their interest rate cutting cycle.

In terms of actual US government policy change, we will have to wait until 20th January 2025 for Trump’s inauguration. However, Trump’s rhetoric in the meantime will be closely watched by market participants and any commentary that doubles down on his tariff threats and tax cuts may cause a further flight to safety (e.g. USD).

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USD rallies as Trump wins historic election

Sterling has lost ground in the last 24hrs as investors show a delayed reaction from Wednesday’s Autumn budget. 

New UK chancellor Rachel Reeve’s budget delivered massive extra spending plans totalling £70 billion each year. This will be funded by huge tax hikes (circa £40 billion per year, which is the largest in more than 30 years) and increases to borrowing by around £30 billion per year. While markets initially reacted in a relatively relaxed fashion to the budget, gilts (UK government bonds) later started to be sold-off and yields extended their rally yesterday amid widespread concerns over how this may ultimately weigh on UK growth. While the Labour party are claiming this new investment will spur UK growth and restore stability to the economy, markets are sceptical over whether this extra stimulus will be enough to offset the negative impact to household disposable incomes from the tax hikes and higher borrowing costs that are likely to ensue. 

In other news, the Euro has strengthened this week by some encouraging economic news out of the region. The latest EU growth report (GDP) showed their economy grew by 0.4% in the three months to September, which was double the 0.2% estimate. Data this week also showed that Eurozone inflation also rebounded off its 3-year lows in October. This has increased expectations that the ECB will take a less aggressive approach to interest rate cuts which has made the Euro more attractive. 

As a result, the Pound lost around 1% against both the EUR (mid-Sept low) and USD (mid-Aug low) yesterday but it’s since recovered around a third of this today. Focus today turns to this afternoon’s nonfarm payrolls report (1.30pm), but investors will have at least one eye on next week’s US election, which remains a tough one to call. Trump remains the front runner in the polls and prediction models, but his apparent advantage appears to have waned this week, and markets are back viewing the election as almost akin to a coin-toss.

DOwning street

Sterling falls following delayed reaction to budget

Sterling has weakened this morning after a surprise miss in the latest UK inflation report.

The CPI data showed that annual inflation dropped to a 3.5-year low of 1.7% last month versus expectations for 1.9%. Core inflation also eased to 3.2% (vs 3.4% estimate), which is the lowest level since September 2021. Not only should the data effectively guarantee another BoE rate cut in November (>90% priced in), but there is also now a heightened possibility that both the vote is unanimous and that the MPC strikes a more dovish tone in its communications. Market expectations are now around a 0.75% chance of back-to-back cuts in November and December.

Upon release of the data, the GBP/USD dropped nearly 0.75% and close to a 2-month low. The GBP/EUR fell just over 0.5% but continues to trade around buoyant levels. Next up, the market focus will shift to tomorrow’s European Central Bank interest rate meeting, US (Thurs) and UK (Fri) retail sales data, alongside a barrage of Fed policymaker speeches on Friday afternoon.

Inflation

Sterling drops as UK inflation decelerates  

Risk aversion has been sweeping through financial markets so far this week due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Equity markets worldwide are trading lower and perceived ‘safe haven’ currencies (e.g. USD) have outperformed most of their peers. The involvement of Iran in the conflict is a worrying development for markets, with investors rightly fearful that retaliation from Israel could disrupt global oil supplies - Iran is the seventh largest oil producer in the world. Israel’s PM Netanyahu has vowed to strike back, and we would expect another leg upwards in oil should these threats materialise, particularly should it target the country’s oil refineries.

The USD had already strengthened earlier this week following some hawkish comments from Fed chair Powell and yesterday’s US services data (ISM) has dramatically reduced concerns over an imminent slowdown in the US, which has further bolstered the dollar. Investors’ focus will now turn to this afternoon’s non-farm payroll figures (1.30pm) for further clues on the state of the US labour market and how this will interest rate expectations.

Sterling lost ground yesterday following some surprisingly dovish comments from Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey. Markets were caught off guard as, seemingly out of nowhere, Bailey said that the bank could be ‘a bit more activist’ on rate cuts should we see further good news on UK inflation. Although the UK data has not necessarily deteriorated to an extent that would warrant such a shift in policy stance from the BoE since their last meeting and inflation remains in line with their forecasts, the comments were enough for markets to increase their expectations of more aggressive rate cuts from the BoE, which weakened the Pound. However, cautious comments from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill this morning have provided a little bit of support Sterling. He said that "Further cuts in the bank rate remain in prospect but it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast".

As a result, the GBP/USD rate is trading around 2.5 cents lower than where it started the week and touched a 3-week low earlier. The GBP/EUR dropped over 1% yesterday to hit a 2-week low but has since recovered 0.5 cent. The EUR/USD has dropped around 1.5% this week and trades around a 3-week low.

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Risk aversion dominates markets this week. USD stronger. 

Sterling has pushed higher and the USD has weakened following their respective central bank interest rate meetings.

The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by a jumbo 0.5% last night. Expectations over the past week had been for a smaller 0.25% cut, but this changed over the past couple of days with the market sensing a larger cut was on the cards. So, although the USD weakened, the moves weren’t quite as dramatic as they could have been as it was largely priced in. Inflation appears to be less of a worry for policymakers and instead concerns are increasingly turning towards the Fed’s second goal, maximum employment. Their forecasts support these feelings, with a higher unemployment rate now projected and less persistent inflationary pressures compared to their last set of forecasts.  

As expected, the Bank of England have just voted to keep interest rates on hold. However, there was only one dissenter voting for a 0.25% cut (8-0-1) versus expectations for two dissenters, which has helped support Sterling on the release. Policymakers clearly still have enough concerns over the lingering UK inflation that they’re prepared to move slowly with regards to cutting interests. Therefore, providing UK inflation continues to be stubborn and the labour market remains tight, this may provide some underlying support for Sterling over its major peers, who at this stage appear to be cutting more aggressively.

As a result, the GBP/USD rate has hit the highest levels since February 2022 having pushed up 1% today. The GBP/EUR is up around a quarter of a percent but towards the top end of where it has traded since the start of August. The EUR/USD is up a cent today and trading around a 3-week high.

Fed cut by 0.5%, BoE on hold 

Currency markets remain in a state of flux ahead this week’s Federal Reserve (Weds) and Bank of England (Thurs) interest rate meetings.  

Investors are bracing themselves for the first US Federal Reserve interest rate cut since 2020. The ongoing question is whether this will be a more conservative 0.25% cut or a larger 0.5% cut. Swings in recent market expectations have created a lot of volatility in the USD and we expect this to continue into and after Wednesday’s decision. Traders are currently pricing in around a 59% chance of the larger 0.5% cut and therefore it’s still very much in the air. Along with the rate cut, analysts will also be focusing on the bank’s projections for the future path of interest rates over the next few years. So, regardless of the size of the cut, the tone in the accompanying statement and their future projections could also play a large part in how the USD performs in the coming weeks.

As anticipated, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday. They also lowered their growth forecasts but at the same time adjusted their core inflation estimates higher. Importantly, they signalled that another rate cut in October was very unlikely, which helped to counter the weaker growth outlook and ultimately helped support the Euro. This was particular evident against the USD where it seems the paces of cuts in the Eurozone will be at a slower pace than across the Atlantic.

The Pound remains relatively buoyant moving into this week’s Bank of England meeting. Although last week’s UK growth data missed expectations, it hasn’t materially altered the view that the UK economy is performing much better than economists had expected at the start of the year. In particular, the labour market is proving particularly resilient and inflation remains around the BoE’s 2% target. Markets are therefore expecting the BoE to keep rates on hold this week, as it’s likely policymakers will want to continue monitoring the data for further clues on when to next act. Consequently, Pound traders will instead be paying very close attention to the voting pattern. A close vote, with a handful of dissenters in favour of an immediate cut, could trigger some downside in the pound.

As a result, the GBP/USD has recovered nearly 2-cents from last week’s low and now trades at a 10-day high. The GBP/EUR continues to trade within a relatively tight range but towards the upper end of the past week. The EUR/USD has risen around 1% from last week’s low and now trades around a 2-week high.

US flag

Markets brace themselves for US rate cut

Sterling has recovered some its recent losses following better than expected UK job and earnings figures.

The data showed the unemployment rate declined to 4.2% in the three months to June versus expectations for an increase to 4.5% (and a previous reading of 4.4%). Furthermore, the average earnings in the three months from April to June came in at 5.4% versus expectations of 4.6%. This has supported the Pound as it reduces expectations for how aggressive the Bank of England will be with future rate cuts.

There’s been a rebound in global stock markets after last week’s sharp selloff which has improved risk sentiment and encouraged investment back into the Pound. However, there is still underlying cautiousness in the market around the deepening crisis in the Middle East and how far things will escalate. This is keeping the USD more resilient against its peers and seemingly keeping a lid on the GBP/USD rate at the moment.

As a result,  the GBP/USD rate has recovered around 1.1% from last week’s low and currently trades at an 8-day high. The GBP/EUR rate is up by around 1.2% from last week’s low and also trades at an 8-day high. Further clues on how well the UK economy is doing will be provided by tomorrow’s UK inflation data, Thursday’s UK growth data and Friday’s UK retail sales figures. So, we might see further volatility in the Pound as the week progresses. We also have some key US data releases this week, including US inflation figures (Weds), US retail sales (Thurs) and US consumer sentiment (Fri).

Employment

Pound climbs as unemployment rate unexpectedly falls

Sterling has moved lower today and safe haven currencies have rallied as market risk sentiment sours.

Stock markets across Europe and Asia have slumped this morning amidst growing concerns around a US economy slowdown. This has largely been triggered by weaker-than-expected US jobs data out on Friday afternoon. The US nonfarm payrolls report for July came in at 114k versus expectations closer to 175K, but the bigger surprise surrounded a jump in the US unemployment to 4.3% versus expectations (and previous reading) of 4.1% This – combined with some more recent weaker US data – may indicate that the US economy is struggling to bear the consequences of sustained higher interest rates. This has ramped up market odds for heavier interest rate cuts from the Fed (including a potential 0.5% cut next month) and therefore weakened the USD.

Growing fears of a deepening conflict in the Middle East have further boosted the flight towards perceived safe-haven currencies (e.g. Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc). Iran has promised to retaliate heavily after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. Over the weekend, Iran-backed Hezbollah confirmed they launched dozens of missiles on Israel and concerns are growing over how far Iran will go with their reprisals. 

As a result, the US dollar has been suffering from the repricing in interest rate expectations which has pushed the EUR/USD rate up nearly 2-cents from Friday’s low and to a 5mth high. This move out of the USD and into Euro – combined with Sterling’s sensitivity to risk aversion – has dragged the GBP/EUR lower by over 2-cents from Friday and it now trades at an 11-week low. The GBP/USD has been choppy but continues to trade towards the lower end of where it has been over the past month. 

We have a fairly quiet week in terms of data and traders will continue to monitor the fallout from last week’s US jobs data and see whether there’s been somewhat of an overreaction (i.e. could there be a countertrend move). They’ll also be closely watching for any development out of the Middle East. 

News

Trump win continues to support the USD

USD rallies as Trump wins historic election

Sterling falls following delayed reaction to budget

Sterling drops as UK inflation decelerates

Risk aversion dominates markets this week. USD stronger.

Fed cut by 0.5%, BoE on hold

Markets brace themselves for US rate cut

Pound climbs as unemployment rate unexpectedly falls

Sterling declines as market risk aversion increases

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